XAUUSD Weekly: Fibonacci Extensions Signal Continuation

Gold's weekly chart presents one of the cleaner technical setups in the precious metals market's recent history. After the January 29 all-time high at $5,595.42, XAUUSD has retraced in an orderly fashion — not a panic selloff, but a measured consolidation that has found strong support at textbook Fibonacci levels. This week's price action around $4,931 positions gold at a critical inflection point.

This analysis covers the complete Fibonacci framework applied to XAUUSD on the weekly timeframe, the three key momentum indicators to watch, and the weekly candlestick patterns that define the current technical context.

The Weekly Fibonacci Framework

The two primary Fibonacci swings that govern the current weekly technical structure are:

1. The major bull swing: October 2022 low at $1,618 to January 2026 ATH at $5,595 — used for Fibonacci extension projections
2. The current correction swing: January 29 ATH at $5,595 to the February 5 low at $4,762 — used for Fibonacci retracement levels

Fibonacci Retracement Levels (January ATH to February Low)

Gold has found support precisely at the 38.2% retracement of the January decline at $4,875 and is currently consolidating near the 78.6% level ($4,942). This is a technically significant zone: a weekly close above $4,942 would confirm the 38.2% held and the correction is likely over. The 61.8% retracement at $5,100 is the most important level — bulls need a weekly close above it to signal the primary uptrend has fully resumed.

Fibonacci Extension Targets (Major Bull Swing)

Key Price Levels: Support and Resistance Map

Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD, Stochastic

RSI Analysis

The weekly RSI at 58 is in a well-positioned zone for further upside. During gold's significant bull market legs of 2024–2025, the RSI regularly reached 75–80 before turning down — meaning from the current reading of 58, there is roughly 15–22 points of "RSI distance" before overbought conditions develop. This is meaningful headroom.

Of equal importance is where RSI held during the January–February correction: it pulled back from 71 (overbought) to 52 (neutral), an orderly reset that did not signal a trend reversal. RSI corrections to the 45–55 range mid-bull market are healthy and typically precede the next leg higher. The fact that RSI found support at 52 rather than breaking below 50 (which would indicate a shift to bearish momentum) is a positive signal.

MACD Analysis

The weekly MACD is perhaps the most important signal in this analysis. After going negative briefly during the February correction (MACD line crossed below signal line), it is now in the process of turning positive again — the histogram has gone from -2.3 at the February 10 low to +0.42 as of this writing.

Historically in gold's weekly chart, MACD crosses from negative to positive have been high-probability entry signals for intermediate-term positions. The three most recent instances (March 2024, August 2024, April 2025) all produced moves of at least 15–25% over the following 8–12 weeks. A confirmed MACD bullish crossover on the weekly chart — which appears imminent if prices hold above $4,900 — would be a strong momentum confirmation signal.

Key MACD levels to watch:

• Histogram above +1.5: Momentum confirming — likely targeting $5,100 resistance
• MACD line crossing above signal line: Bullish confirmation — weekly close above $4,985 would likely trigger this
• Histogram turning negative again before crossing: Warning sign — suggests failed recovery and possible retest of $4,762 low

Stochastic RSI

The weekly Stochastic oscillator at 52 tells a similar story: it has reset from the overbought extreme of 92 (January 29) to the neutral mid-range, clearing the way for the next advance without the risk of being sold into an overbought stochastic. A Stochastic crossover above 50, in conjunction with the MACD confirmation, would represent a two-indicator momentum confirmation — one of the strongest signals in weekly timeframe analysis.

Weekly Candlestick Pattern Analysis

The last four weekly candles tell an important story about price acceptance and the transition from correction to recovery:

The sequence of the last four candles describes a classic correction-and-recovery pattern: aggressive sell-off from ATH, buyers emerging at 38.2% support, indecision doji at the lows, and now a recovery candle forming. This four-candle pattern has historically been reliable in gold's weekly chart during corrective phases within bull markets.

Volume Profile at Current Levels

Volume profile analysis on the weekly chart shows the $4,875–$4,950 zone as a high-volume node — meaning significant trading has occurred here over the past several weeks. This is constructive for bulls: high-volume nodes tend to act as support because institutional buyers who purchased here are less likely to panic-sell their positions at a loss.

The volume point of control (VPOC) — the single price level with the highest traded volume over the past 90 days — sits at $4,912. Gold trading above its VPOC is a bullish signal indicating that current buyers are "in profit" on average, reducing selling pressure. A sustained move above the VPOC with volume expansion would be a strong confirmation of the recovery thesis.

Weekly Trading Framework

Based on the Fibonacci levels, momentum indicators, and candle patterns, here is the actionable framework for the coming week:

Conclusion

The XAUUSD weekly Fibonacci structure is constructive for bulls. The 38.2% retracement at $4,875 has held as primary support — a textbook reaction level in a bull market. RSI has reset to 58 from overbought conditions, the MACD histogram is turning positive, and the weekly candle sequence suggests the correction is transitioning to recovery.

The critical near-term test is a weekly close above $4,985 to confirm the recovery is underway, followed by the more important $5,100 level (61.8% retracement) that would signal the primary uptrend has fully resumed. From there, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $5,237 becomes the next intermediate target, and the 161.8% extension at $5,875 remains the primary macro target for 2026.

The technical picture is bullish as long as $4,875 holds. A weekly close below that level would shift the focus to a retest of the $4,762 February low, though even that scenario would not necessarily be bearish from a macro perspective — it would simply represent a deeper correction within the ongoing bull market before the eventual push toward new all-time highs.